Is human perception of statistics flawed?

It sure is. That's why we will always be plagued by astrologers and soothsayers no matter how scientifically sophisticated we become. The human brain is designed by evolution to search for patterns. Many of these are 'cause and effect' type relationships which the brain tries to organize to increase its survivability in nature. This leads to many errors of judgement.

Humans are rotten when it comes to risk assessment. We tolerate an industry that produces a product, cigarettes, which when used as directed cause over 100,000 deaths each year, and we also protect the right of individuals to have guns in their homes many of which kill family members and children by the score each year, yet we go to fantastic lengths to eliminate asbestos from homes and the work environment which probably contribute fewer than 100 actual deaths per year. We are all a bit jittery when we step aboard an airplane or jet, even though the probability of a death per mile of travel is less than what it is for driving a car 700 miles. Still, we demand indignantly that children have safety seats on airplanes, and ignore the perils of cigarette smoking.


Copyright 1997 Dr. Sten Odenwald
Return to Ask the Astronomer.