What do you see astronomy being like in the 21st century?
- I see astronomy completing its survey of the diverse contents of the visible
universe, and our inventory of how the universe has changed since the Big
Bang. We will have a definitive inventory that shows all the ways that gravity can
shape matter on stellar and galactic scales. There will be no significantly
new 'undiscoverable' categories of stars or galaxies. The 20th century was
unique in having developed most of such a listing, but you can only do this
once per universe!
- We will extend our mapping of the structure of the universe, galaxy by
galaxy, out to 1 billion light years, in detail, and beyond 1 billion light years for
some small parts of the sky. From this, we will conclusively
establish whether the universe is open or closed with Omega = 1 or Omega < 1.
The structure of the universe at greater distances will be a constantly
expanding horizon, and we will end this cataloging and redshift surveying
when we almost literally run out of galaxies that can be seen. It will be
harder and harder to get grant money to continue such a survey because we
must eventually run out of questions worth the money and manpower.
- We will establish what 'dark matter' is, and just how much of it there is
in the universe. We will determine the nature of the galactic 'dark matter'
component which is widely thought to be under-luminous or non-luminous matter
perhaps in black holes, dwarf stars, Jupiters, and the like. This type of
dark matter will explain the dynamics of individual galaxies and their
constituent stars, but may NOT explain the large scale motions of galaxies
inside clusters, or clusters in the larger universe. This second type of dark
matter will be quantified by X-ray satellites and the like. And we will know
by the end of the first half of the 21st century, just how much of this kind
of dark matter is present, and whether it is even matter at all.
- No mystery can remain so for very long. Even now, the mystery of the
infamous 'gamma ray bursts' is buckling as astronomers have captured the
fading glow of one of these events, and found that it coincides with a faint,
distant galaxy...as many people have expected they would for over a decade.
many more of these events will be tracked down, and in the 21st century, we
will see the advent of new satellites to study the physics of these events,
obtain the ever important spectra of their matter, and so on. This has been
the history of every 'mystery' astronomers have uncovered from quasars to
pulsars to black holes.
- The study of extra-solar planetary systems will explode as new instruments
supported by NASA's Origins program come on line. By the end of the first half
of the 21st century, we will have catalogs of HUNDREDS of these worlds, and
have a complete inventory of the planetary systems within a 50 light years of
the Sun. We will discover just how typical or a-typical our solar system
really is, and what the consequences this has for life on other worlds. We
will also have spectral data on many of these worlds, and even a few small
enough to be Earth-like twins.
- We will have an active program of reconoitering Titan and Europa, with
crust-penetrating probes to search for ecological niches and conditions where
bacteria may have established a toe-hold. We will have sample return missions
to many of these spots either enroute or on the drawing boards.
- We will discover how to stop the deterioration of human bones and health
in long-duration missions, and with newer generations of heavy-lift rockets we
will again start to reach out and set foot on the Moon and Mars, beginning
again where we left off in the 1970's. Most mission profiles are all or
nothing. You do not spend 400 days round trip to Mars, just to spend 3 days on
the surface like we did with the Moon. We will HAVE to send in advance, lots
of resources that will take up parking orbits around Mars, and which will wait
there for a crew of astronauts to assemble them and set up a colony on Mars.
The colony will STAY there for several years before returning at the next
Mars-Earth opposition when relief crews will arrive. This will happen in the
21st century, unless there is a world-wide referendum to abandon space.
- The commercialization of near-earth space will explode as it is starting
to already. Every nation that now has two dimes to rub together is developing
a satellite, or a launch vehicle system. Commercial communication satellites
will be augmented by 'getaway specials' for people to take $50,000 rides into
Earth orbit for one day visits.
- Gravity wave astronomy will finally come of age as the new, non-
electromagnetic, frontier in observational astronomy. Detectors will monitor
the collapse of matter into black holes and neutron stars anywhere within
100 million light years of the Milky Way or even beyond as their sensitivities
increase. We are still at the Galileo-stage of building sensitive gravity wave
detectors. In the next century, these instruments will allow cosmologists to
examine what went on in the universe at times far earlier than what the COBE
satellite has let us ( 300,000 years after the Big Bang). We will begin to
explore conditions before the first SECOND after the Big Bang with these
instruments
- Neutrino astronomy, which has expanded enormously in the last 10 years,
will become a major new frontier as more sensitive detectors are built. The
contents of the neutrino universe will be imaged and although no new physics
is expected, we can never know for sure as we explore this second non-
electromagnetic energy spectrum
- A career in astronomy will still be hard to get as population pressure
continues to make more humans available every year. But since the number of
'Einsteins' in humanity seems to be a fixed per capita phenomenon, we will
have
many more brilliant 'Einstein-caliber' people entering the physics and
astronomy professions, which will take these fields in directions we cannot
now imagine.
- New technologies will become available, and amateur astronomers will reap
a whirlwind of amazing over the counter equipment which will dwarf the
technologies now available to professional astronomers. Amateur astronomers in
the 21st century will aggressively colonize the radio frontier and radio
telescopes will be come as common to amateurs as optical telescopes were in
the 1930's. With 1000 amateur radio astronomers combing the skies for
adventure, who knows what odd transient events they will uncover. Even optical
interferometers may be attempted by amateur astronomers.
-
Professional astronomers will no longer have research published in paper form,
but will use all-electronic media such as the Internet or its 21st century
equivalent. This means that historians 200 years from now will only have
electronic forms of research papers to work from and no back-up paper copies.
This could be a problem if you worry about how permanent electronic data
storage will be for 50 - 200 year life times. Already, VHS tapes of family
movies degrade badly after 10 - 15 years. The best CDROMS last only 50 - 100
years before the media itself begins to break down. More importantly, the
software and platforms needed to retrieve the information change every 5
years. Historians of post-20th century science will have their hands full.
- Astronomy as a profession will also begin to wane as we run out of new
epical questions to ask and answer. We live in a finite visible universe, with
only a finite number of interesting 'first' questions' of the first rank.
There will be zillions of questions of the second rank, but you can only
answer some questions like 'Is the universe going to collapse, or will it
expand for ever?' or 'Is our solar system alone?'. After that, you ar in the
realm of 'Why does the brightness of the star SAO 190456 vary exactly the way
it does?'. Many astronomers will still like to answer those kinds of
questions.
- Last year, physicists confirmed that the quantum mechanical vacuum state
is not empty, but produces a repulsive force between conducting plates less
than 0.5 microns apart as predicted by Casimir in the 1940's and by Quantum
Electrodynamics. This force will be harnessed by 'cheating' Heisenberg's
Uncertainty Principle, one electron at a time. With this as a local power
source, computers in the next century which use 'quantum processors' now
being developed, will no longer require outside power sources
to drive them. The first
applications will be novelty toys that draw energy out of 'empty space'
rather than solar energy. Eventually, larger systems will be designed. We
may never be permitted by nature to do more than give single electrons a
minuscule 'kick', but a million of these kicks on a single chip might be
able to do some useful work for nano-technology.
- A larger number of astronomers will turn to reflective writing aimed at
popularizing or 'integrating in simple terms' the body of astronomical
knowledge. The 21st century will be the century of science popularization as
governments and citizens ask for more pay-back for their investments in
astronomy, and as many astronomers who have become increasingly restless with pure
research, begin to find increasing enjoyment in telling others about their
work.
- Because of the inevitable increase in the raw intelligence and curiosity
of the average citizen, which has increased steadily for centuries, we will
see greater demands places on the entertainment media for thoughtful stories
about science in the genre of science fiction.
- Although some astronomical research may take place on the lunar surface
and beyond, the major resources of astronomers for scientific discovery will
still come from Earth-orbiting satellite observatories, or ground-based
systems. The number of small optical telescopes below 4-meters in size will
severely shrink as it becomes cheaper to build large 10-20 meter class
instruments. Most active research will be done in Chile and Hawaii, with
virtually all North American optical research observatories being forced to
close down for lack of 'interesting projects' worth the cost of keeping the
observatory active. The exceptions will be optical observatories using optical
interferometers.
Copyright 1997 Dr. Sten Odenwald
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